Here’s how the human race could survive global catastrophe

By Stephen Beech via SWNS

The human race could survive a global catastrophe - such as a nuclear war - by a small number of people gathering in a remote refuge, suggests new research.

An analysis of China and Western Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic shows that creating a safe refuge may be an option.

One suggested way to save humankind in the event of a deadly pandemic or other extreme global catastrophe is establishing a safe refuge – on an island or in such far-out places as the moon or even underwater -- where a small portion of the human population can stay alive.

Now a new paper, published in the journal Risk Analysis, suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic shows that a refuge is a "viable" concept- and may not need to be geographically isolated or in an exotic location.

Researchers analyzed how and why both China and Western Australia served as successful refuges during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Dr. Seth Baum, a geographer and executive director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute in the United States, and Dr. Vanessa Adams, an associate professor in Conservation and Planning at the University of Tasmania, conducted a case study of China and Western Australia.

Both China and Western Australia share their borders with others yet managed to keep COVID-19 infections relatively low.

From March 2020 to January 2022, China’s estimated cases per 100,000 people were 1,358 compared to 98,556 in the United States and 142,365 in India. Western Australia’s official cases were just 48.8.

Previous research has shown that island nations - such as Iceland, Australia, and New Zealand - are good candidates for a refuge, based on their success in keeping COVID-19 infections low in the first nine months of the pandemic.

A pandemic refuge is defined as a place with low medical risk where a pathogen has not spread significantly.

However, the new study, covering nearly two years of the pandemic, suggests that geographic isolation - or being on an island - is not a prerequisite for a pandemic refuge.

Dr. Baum said: “China is a very clear case in point

“It has succeeded despite having the world’s longest land border.”

The researchers examined both the differences and similarities between China and Western Australia.

Dr. Baum said: "China is authoritarian, collectivist, and heavily populated in the most populous region of the world.

"Western Australia is democratic, individualist, and sparsely populated in one of the most remote regions of the world.

"Yet the two jurisdictions are similar in other, important ways. Both have a high degree of centralization and a high capacity for self-isolation -- China via its authoritarian government, Western Australia via its social isolation and strong economy driven by a booming mining industry.

"Both also have strong in-group cohesion and have been highly motivated to avoid pathogen spread.

"Both China and Western Australia have also maintained extensive trade with outside places throughout the pandemic.

“This is encouraging because it suggests that pandemic refuges can provide a high degree of economic support for outside populations during pandemics, an important element for achieving the global objective of refuges – the continuity of civilization."

Dr. Adams added: “Pandemic refuges are a risk management policy concept worthy of serious consideration alongside other public health measures such as vaccines and physical distancing.”