Melting Arctic ice could transform international shipping routes, suggests a new study.
Global warming melting pack ice in the Arctic Ocean could yield new routes - reducing the shipping industry’s carbon footprint and weakening Russia’s control over trade routes through the region, according to the research.
With climate change rapidly warming the world’s oceans, scientists say the future looks grim for the Arctic Ocean.
Climate models show that parts of the Arctic that were once covered in ice all year are warming so quickly that they will be reliably ice-free for months on end within two decades.
Scientists say that the Arctic’s changing climate will endanger countless species that thrive in freezing temperatures.
But it could also provide shorter, more eco-friendly maritime trade routes that bypass the Russian-controlled Northern Sea Route.
Climate scientists at Brown University in the United States teamed up with a legal expert to predict how Arctic Ocean ice melt could affect the regulation of shipping routes over the next few decades.
They projected that by 2065, the Arctic’s navigability will increase so greatly that it could yield new trade routes in international waters.
Lead author Professor Amanda Lynch said: “There’s no scenario in which melting ice in the Arctic is good news."
“But the unfortunate reality is that the ice is already retreating, these routes are opening up, and we need to start thinking critically about the legal, environmental and geopolitical implications.”
Prof Lynch, who has studied climate change in the Arctic for nearly 30 years, said that as a first step, she worked with Dr. Xueke Li, a postdoctoral research associate at Brown University, to model four navigation scenarios based on four likely outcomes of global actions to halt climate change in the coming years.
Their projections showed that unless global leaders successfully constrain warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over the next 43 years, climate change will likely open up "several" new routes through international waters by the middle of this century.
Co-author Professor Charles Norchi, director of the Centre for Oceans and Coastal Law at Maine Law, said the changes could have major implications for world trade and global politics.
He explained that since 1982, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea has given Arctic coastal states enhanced authority over primary shipping routes.
Article 234 of the convention states that in the name of “the prevention, reduction and control of marine pollution from vessels,” countries whose coastlines are near Arctic shipping routes have the ability to regulate the route’s maritime traffic, so long as the area remains ice-covered for the majority of the year.
Prof Norchi says that for decades, Russia has used Article 234 for its own economic and geopolitical interests. One Russian law requires all vessels passing through the Northern Sea Route to be piloted by Russians.
Russia also requires that passing vessels pay tolls and provide advance notice of their plans to use the route.
Prof Nochi explained that the heavy regulation is one of several reasons why major shipping firms often bypass the route’s heavy regulations and high costs and instead use the Suez and Panama canals - which are longer, but cheaper and easier trade routes.
But as the ice near Russia’s northern coast begins to melt, Prof Norchi says that so will its grip on shipping through the Arctic Ocean.
He said: “The Russians will, I'm sure, continue to invoke Article 234, which they will attempt to back up with their might.
“But they will be challenged by the international community because Article 234 will cease to be applicable if there's no ice covered-area for most of the year.
"Not only that, but with melting ice, shipping will move out of Russian territorial waters and into international waters.
"If that happens, Russia can’t do much, because the outcome is driven by climate change and shipping economics.”
Prof Lynch says previous studies have shown that Arctic routes are 30 percent to 50 percent shorter than the Suez and Panama Canal routes, with transit time reduced by an estimated 14 to 20 days.
That means that if international Arctic waters warm enough to open up new pathways, shipping firms could reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by around 24 per cent while also saving money and time.
Prof Lynch said: “These potential new Arctic routes are a useful thing to consider when you recall the moment when the Ever Given ship was stranded in the Suez Canal, blocking an important shipping route for several weeks.
“Diversifying trade routes - especially considering new routes that can’t be blocked, because they’re not canals — gives the global shipping infrastructure a lot more resiliency.”
Prof Lynch hopes that kicking off the conversation on the Arctic’s trade future with well-researched scholarship might help world leaders make informed decisions about protecting the Earth’s climate from future harm.
She added: “Flagging these coming changes now could help prevent them from emerging as a crisis that has to be resolved rapidly, which almost never turns out well.
“To actually craft international agreements with some forethought and deliberation is certainly a better way to go.”
The study was published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
Stories and infographics by ‘Talker Research’ are available to download & ready to use. Stories and videos by ‘Talker News’ are managed by SWNS. To license content for editorial or commercial use and to see the full scope of SWNS content, please email [email protected] or submit an inquiry via our contact form.
We use cookies on our website to give you the most relevant experience by remembering your preferences and repeat visits. By clicking “Accept All”, you consent to the use of ALL the cookies. However, you may visit "Cookie Settings" to provide a controlled consent.
This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously.
Cookie
Duration
Description
__hssc
1 hour
HubSpot sets this cookie to keep track of sessions and to determine if HubSpot should increment the session number and timestamps in the __hstc cookie.
__hssrc
session
This cookie is set by Hubspot whenever it changes the session cookie. The __hssrc cookie set to 1 indicates that the user has restarted the browser, and if the cookie does not exist, it is assumed to be a new session.
_GRECAPTCHA
5 months 27 days
Google Recaptcha service sets this cookie to identify bots to protect the website against malicious spam attacks.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement
1 year
Set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie records the user consent for the cookies in the "Advertisement" category.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional
11 months
The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance
11 months
This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".
CookieLawInfoConsent
1 year
CookieYes sets this cookie to record the default button state of the corresponding category and the status of CCPA. It works only in coordination with the primary cookie.
rc::a
never
This cookie is set by the Google recaptcha service to identify bots to protect the website against malicious spam attacks.
rc::b
session
This cookie is set by the Google recaptcha service to identify bots to protect the website against malicious spam attacks.
rc::c
session
This cookie is set by the Google recaptcha service to identify bots to protect the website against malicious spam attacks.
rc::f
never
This cookie is set by the Google recaptcha service to identify bots to protect the website against malicious spam attacks.
ts
1 year 1 month 1 day
PayPal sets this cookie to enable secure transactions through PayPal.
usprivacy
1 year 1 month
This is a consent cookie set by Dailymotion to store the CCPA consent string (mandatory information about an end-user being or not being a California consumer and exercising or not exercising its statutory right).
viewed_cookie_policy
11 months
The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data.
Functional cookies help to perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collect feedbacks, and other third-party features.
Cookie
Duration
Description
__cf_bm
30 minutes
Cloudflare set the cookie to support Cloudflare Bot Management.
li_gc
5 months 27 days
Linkedin set this cookie for storing visitor's consent regarding using cookies for non-essential purposes.
lidc
1 day
LinkedIn sets the lidc cookie to facilitate data center selection.
UserMatchHistory
1 month
LinkedIn sets this cookie for LinkedIn Ads ID syncing.
v1st
1 year 1 month 1 day
The v1st cookie is set by TripAdvisor to collect details about how visitors use the website, by displaying user reviews, awards and information received on the TripAdvisor community.
yt-player-bandwidth
never
The yt-player-bandwidth cookie is used to store the user's video player preferences and settings, particularly related to bandwidth and streaming quality on YouTube.
yt-player-headers-readable
never
The yt-player-headers-readable cookie is used by YouTube to store user preferences related to video playback and interface, enhancing the user's viewing experience.
yt-remote-cast-available
session
The yt-remote-cast-available cookie is used to store the user's preferences regarding whether casting is available on their YouTube video player.
yt-remote-cast-installed
session
The yt-remote-cast-installed cookie is used to store the user's video player preferences using embedded YouTube video.
yt-remote-fast-check-period
session
The yt-remote-fast-check-period cookie is used by YouTube to store the user's video player preferences for embedded YouTube videos.
yt-remote-session-app
session
The yt-remote-session-app cookie is used by YouTube to store user preferences and information about the interface of the embedded YouTube video player.
yt-remote-session-name
session
The yt-remote-session-name cookie is used by YouTube to store the user's video player preferences using embedded YouTube video.
ytidb::LAST_RESULT_ENTRY_KEY
never
The cookie ytidb::LAST_RESULT_ENTRY_KEY is used by YouTube to store the last search result entry that was clicked by the user. This information is used to improve the user experience by providing more relevant search results in the future.
Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.
Cookie
Duration
Description
_gat
1 minute
Google Universal Analytics sets this cookie to restrain request rate and thus limit data collection on high-traffic sites.
_p_hfp_client_id
less than a minute
Elfsight sets this cookie to implement social platforms on the website and enables the social platforms to track the users by assigning them a specific ID.
dmvk
session
The dmvk cookie is set by Dailymotion to record data of visitor behaviour on the website.
SRM_B
1 year 24 days
Used by Microsoft Advertising as a unique ID for visitors.
Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.
Cookie
Duration
Description
__hstc
6 months
Hubspot set this main cookie for tracking visitors. It contains the domain, initial timestamp (first visit), last timestamp (last visit), current timestamp (this visit), and session number (increments for each subsequent session).
_clck
1 year
Microsoft Clarity sets this cookie to retain the browser's Clarity User ID and settings exclusive to that website. This guarantees that actions taken during subsequent visits to the same website will be linked to the same user ID.
_clsk
1 day
Microsoft Clarity sets this cookie to store and consolidate a user's pageviews into a single session recording.
_fbp
3 months
Facebook sets this cookie to display advertisements when either on Facebook or on a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising after visiting the website.
_ga
1 year 1 month 4 days
Google Analytics sets this cookie to calculate visitor, session and campaign data and track site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookie stores information anonymously and assigns a randomly generated number to recognise unique visitors.
_ga_*
1 year 1 month 4 days
Google Analytics sets this cookie to store and count page views.
_gat_gtag_UA_*
1 minute
Google Analytics sets this cookie to store a unique user ID.
_gcl_au
3 months
Google Tag Manager sets the cookie to experiment advertisement efficiency of websites using their services.
_gid
1 day
Google Analytics sets this cookie to store information on how visitors use a website while also creating an analytics report of the website's performance. Some of the collected data includes the number of visitors, their source, and the pages they visit anonymously.
AnalyticsSyncHistory
1 month
Linkedin set this cookie to store information about the time a sync took place with the lms_analytics cookie.
CLID
1 year
Microsoft Clarity set this cookie to store information about how visitors interact with the website. The cookie helps to provide an analysis report. The data collection includes the number of visitors, where they visit the website, and the pages visited.
CONSENT
2 years
YouTube sets this cookie via embedded YouTube videos and registers anonymous statistical data.
hubspotutk
6 months
HubSpot sets this cookie to keep track of the visitors to the website. This cookie is passed to HubSpot on form submission and used when deduplicating contacts.
ln_or
1 day
Linkedin sets this cookie to registers statistical data on users' behaviour on the website for internal analytics.
MR
7 days
This cookie, set by Bing, is used to collect user information for analytics purposes.
SM
session
Microsoft Clarity cookie set this cookie for synchronizing the MUID across Microsoft domains.
Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with relevant ads and marketing campaigns. These cookies track visitors across websites and collect information to provide customized ads.
Cookie
Duration
Description
ANONCHK
10 minutes
The ANONCHK cookie, set by Bing, is used to store a user's session ID and verify ads' clicks on the Bing search engine. The cookie helps in reporting and personalization as well.
bcookie
1 year
LinkedIn sets this cookie from LinkedIn share buttons and ad tags to recognize browser IDs.
bscookie
1 year
LinkedIn sets this cookie to store performed actions on the website.
fr
3 months
Facebook sets this cookie to show relevant advertisements by tracking user behaviour across the web, on sites with Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin.
IDE
1 year 24 days 1 minute
Google DoubleClick IDE cookies store information about how the user uses the website to present them with relevant ads according to the user profile.
li_sugr
3 months
LinkedIn sets this cookie to collect user behaviour data to optimise the website and make advertisements on the website more relevant.
muc_ads
1 year 1 month 4 days
Twitter sets this cookie to collect user behaviour and interaction data to optimize the website.
MUID
1 year 24 days
Bing sets this cookie to recognise unique web browsers visiting Microsoft sites. This cookie is used for advertising, site analytics, and other operations.
personalization_id
1 year 1 month 4 days
Twitter sets this cookie to integrate and share features for social media and also store information about how the user uses the website, for tracking and targeting.
test_cookie
15 minutes
doubleclick.net sets this cookie to determine if the user's browser supports cookies.
ttwid
1 year
Tiktok sets this cookie to keep track of user authentication and session information.
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE
5 months 27 days
YouTube sets this cookie to measure bandwidth, determining whether the user gets the new or old player interface.
VISITOR_PRIVACY_METADATA
6 months
YouTube sets this cookie to store the user's cookie consent state for the current domain.
YSC
session
Youtube sets this cookie to track the views of embedded videos on Youtube pages.
yt-remote-connected-devices
never
YouTube sets this cookie to store the user's video preferences using embedded YouTube videos.
yt-remote-device-id
never
YouTube sets this cookie to store the user's video preferences using embedded YouTube videos.
yt.innertube::nextId
never
YouTube sets this cookie to register a unique ID to store data on what videos from YouTube the user has seen.
yt.innertube::requests
never
YouTube sets this cookie to register a unique ID to store data on what videos from YouTube the user has seen.