Russia-Ukraine war could put millions into ‘extreme poverty’: study

By Pol Allingham via SWNS

Russia’s war in Ukraine could push hundreds of millions of people into extreme poverty, warns a new study.

Experts say many people all over the world will need support to afford food.

Soaring energy prices as a result of the invasion could make households destitute across the globe, as scientists warn household energy costs are likely to rise between 62.2 percent and 112.9 percent.

Energy price hikes may force homes to spend 2.7 percent to 4.8 percent more, potentially pushing between 78 million and 141 million into extreme poverty.

The United Nations defined “extreme poverty” as: “A condition characterized by severe deprivation of basic human needs, including food, safe drinking water, sanitation facilities, health, shelter, education and information.

“It depends not only on income but also on access to services.”

Researchers from the universities of Birmingham, Groningen and Maryland modeled the financial impact on households from 116 countries.

Joined by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, they called for targeted energy assistance for vulnerable households during the ongoing crisis.

Dr. Yuli Shan, of the University of Birmingham, said: “High energy prices hit household finances in two ways.

"Fuel price rises directly increase household energy bills, whilst energy inputs needed to produce goods and services push prices up for those products as well and especially for food, which affects households indirectly.

“Due to the unequal distribution of income, surging energy prices will affect households in very different ways.

“Unaffordable costs of energy and other necessities will push vulnerable populations into energy poverty and even extreme poverty.

“This unprecedented global energy crisis reminds us that an energy system highly reliant on fossil fuels perpetuates energy security risks, as well as accelerating climate change.“

Researchers calculated the extra energy costs per household versus the pre-crisis levels.

Additional energy costs were known as the cost burden rate - they varied widely between countries depending on the pattern of energy consumption and fossil fuel dependency.

In richer countries, the poorest carried the highest energy rates, according to the study published in the journal Nature Energy.

Meanwhile, in low-income countries, the wealthiest tend to pay heavier burdens.

Homes in Sub-Saharan Africa were the hardest hit, whacked with the highest total energy cost burden rate.

Across the globe wealthy homes spent more money on energy in exchange for high-value goods, while poorer households paid extra just to meet daily needs such as food and direct energy.

Since Putin’s war broke out in late February 2022, energy markets have stomached a huge shock.

In addition, global energy prices have surged because due to post-pandemic economic recovery, high-reliance on fossil fuels, and a “severe mismatch” between energy demand and supply.

Professor Klaus Hubacek, of the University of Groningen, said: “Understanding how global energy prices are transmitted to households through global supply chains and who is more affected is crucial for effective and equitable policy design.

“This crisis is worsening energy poverty and extreme poverty worldwide.

“For poor countries, living costs undermine their hard-won gains in energy access and poverty alleviation.

“Ensuring access to affordable energy and other necessities is a priority for those countries, but short-term policies addressing the cost-of-living crisis must align with climate mitigation goals and other long-term sustainable development commitments.“

Russia is a major exporter of oil and natural gas, other countries rely on the nation and now face supply shortages and fuel deprivation.

Simultaneously, emerging economies suffer from high prices importing fuel.

Already high inflation has created a global cost-of-living crisis, pushing multiple economies into recession and adding painful financial pressures on households all over the world.