Scientists predict more intense heatwaves and droughts for Europe

By Isobel Williams via SWNS

Higher meltwater levels in the North Atlantic lead to hotter drier summers in Europe, new research shows.

Increased freshwater can trigger a chain of events allowing scientists to make weather predictions months to years in advance.

The researchers from the National Oceanography Centre predict that European heatwaves and droughts will become more intense in the future.

They note that melting sea ice and glacial ice are a growing source of freshwater to the North Atlantic, and changes in the amount of sea ice can disrupt normal ocean circulation, influencing global climate.

The study, published in Weather and Climate Dynamics states that the warming over Europe after strong freshwater releases in the North Atlantic will add to the warming already happening because of climate change, by causing weather patterns to shift.

Overall, the predictions show a future of hot and dry summers in Europe.

Lead author Dr. Marilena Oltmanns said: “While the UK and northern Europe experienced unusually cool and wet weather in Summer 2023, Greenland experienced an unusually warm summer, leading to increased freshwater input into the North Atlantic.

“Based on the identified chain of events, we expect that the ocean-atmosphere conditions will be favorable for an unusually warm and dry summer over southern Europe this year.

“Depending on the pathway of the freshwater in the North Atlantic, we are also expecting a warm and dry summer in northern Europe within the next five years.

“We will be able to estimate the exact year of the warm and dry summer in northern Europe more closely in the winter before it occurs.”

The team hopes that their predictions will help the nation to better plan for intense weather conditions.

Dr. Oltmanns concluded: “Our findings demonstrate the importance of ocean observations, to ensure climate models capture all physical processes required to make accurate weather predictions.

“This study is a step forward for improving models, which will enable industries and stakeholders to plan ahead for specific weather conditions, such as adapting agricultural methods to be more resilient, predicting fuel usage, and bracing for flooding events.”