Cutting greenhouse gases could save 250,000 lives a year

By Stephen Beech

Cutting greenhouse gases could save 250,000 lives a year by improving air quality, according to new research.

Up to a quarter of a million deaths may be prevented annually in central and western Europe by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions are drastically reduced, say scientists.

The Leeds University study suggests that deaths could be significantly cut - but only if there is a "strong focus" on reducing greenhouse gases and air pollutants.

It could also reduce the "inequitable burden" of air quality mortality in more deprived parts of Europe, according to the findings published in the journal Earth’s Future.

Study lead author Connor Clayton said: “The strategies that policymakers take to mitigate climate change will have considerable implications for human exposure to air quality, not least of which are the number of deaths.

“But they also urgently need to consider the persistent inequity of exposure between wealthier and more deprived populations which continues to be an issue even though air pollution has reduced across Europe.”

Poor air quality is the largest environmental risk factor for early deaths - leading to an estimated eight million deaths per year globally, according to analysis by the World Bank and the World Economic Forum.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has stated that almost every organ in the body can be impacted by air pollution and that due to their small size, some pollutants penetrate the bloodstream via the lungs and circulate throughout the entire body.

Exposure to air pollution can lead to strokes, heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer, pneumonia, diabetes and neurological diseases, including dementia.

There is also evidence linking air pollution exposure to an increased risk of pregnancy problems.

The Leeds team analyzed the health impacts in Europe in 2014 and 2050 from exposure to harmful fine particulate matter, which can penetrate deep into the lungs, and surface level ozone, which is formed when sunlight interacts with certain pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides.

They looked at three scenarios, with low, medium and high levels of action taken by policymakers to combat climate change.

A detailed atmospheric chemistry model was used to simulate the future air quality in 2050.

The researchers found that deprived regions of Europe currently have proportionally higher death rates from air pollution than less deprived regions, but that reductions in emissions would reduce that inequity.

A medium level of action to combat climate change proved to be more beneficial for deprived regions because there was more focus on emissions reductions from the housing, industry and transport sectors.

A high level of action, which also included reductions in agricultural emissions, would lead to improvements in air quality across the continent as well as an improvement in equity and far larger reductions in deaths.

When looking at 2014, the researchers found that fine particulate matter was usually higher in central and eastern Europe than in western Europe, with particularly high concentrations in the Po Valley in Italy, in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and in southern Poland.

In future scenarios where action was taken to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the amount of fine particulate matter decreased, with the largest reductions in central Europe – particularly south west Germany – and in some urban centers, including Paris.

Reductions in fine particulate matter were highest in the scenario where carbon dioxide emissions were cut severely, reaching net zero after 2050. That scenario led to 90% reductions in south-west Germany and Paris.

Study leader Dr. Jim McQuaid said: “This work provides evidence that there are direct health benefits from moving towards a low-carbon economy.

“Air pollutants and the climate warming gases and aerosols are one and the same, it is very much two sides of the same coin."

He added: "It was particularly good to see that those who suffer most from air pollution currently benefit most from the benefits of the drive to a net zero world.”