Afghanistan has least hope for future in global history

By Stephen Beech

Afghanistan has the lowest well-being levels in recorded history following the withdrawal of American forces, according to new research.

Afghans’ life satisfaction and hope for the future are both at all-time, global lows, suggest the findings.

People living there reported an average life satisfaction of just 1.28, on a scale from zero to 10, following the withdrawal of US troops from the war-torn country and the Taliban regaining power in 2022 - the lowest figure recorded anywhere in the world.

The figure is lower than life satisfaction scores recorded in more than 170 countries since 1946, when global ratings were first calculated after World War Two.

In 2022, the global mean life satisfaction rating recorded in the Gallup World Poll was 5.48, with most people in economically developed Western countries recording between six and eight, according to the study published in the journal Science Advances.

Afghans also showed little hope for the future.

When asked to imagine what their lives would be like in five years on the same scale, hope among Afghans fell even lower than their life satisfaction, at 1.02.

The War in Afghanistan began in 2001, triggered by the United States and its allies when the Taliban government refused to surrender al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden following the 9/11 terror attacks.

The subsequent conflict led to the violent deaths of more than 165,000 Afghans, while it is estimated that at least as many died due to the lack of necessities, such as food and medicine, as a result of the conflict.

Study lead author Levi Stutzman, of the University of Toronto in Canada, said: “Globally, people expect their future to be better than their present.

"People are optimistic about their future.

“Afghanistan is quite different as Afghans have reported low life satisfaction and even lower hope, which likely reflects profound distress and despair within the country."

He added: “This research shines a light on the well-being, the life satisfaction, of people who have been left behind.

"They’ve been left behind by the United States, they’ve been left behind by the international community, and they’ve been left behind by international news organisations."

The research team says their findings also underline the impacts that life circumstances and structural factors, such as war and political unrest, can have on subjective well-being.

Life circumstances have previously been downplayed in leading well-being theories and models, which prioritised genetic factors and intentional activities such as exercise and practicing gratitude.

Doctoral student Stutzman said: “Our own sense of well-being, our own happiness, isn’t solely up to us.

"A lot of it is structural."

The research team analysed face-to-face interview data collected in Afghanistan over three periods: before the U.S. withdrawal in 2018 and 2019, during the U.S. withdrawal and the first month of Taliban rule in 2021, and after the U.S. withdrawal in 2022.

In 2018, Afghans rated their life satisfaction at 2.69, and that did not significantly decline in 2021, during the early stages of the withdrawal of US and UK troops from Afghanistan and the first month of renewed Taliban rule.

But after the U.S. withdrawal was completed and the consolidation of Taliban rule in 2022, life satisfaction in Afghanistan dropped to previously unseen levels.

In 2022, nearly all Afghans reported a life satisfaction score below five, and two in three Afghans reported a life satisfaction score of either zero or one.

A deeper analysis shows that women and people living in rural areas have been disproportionately affected, due to the Taliban placing increased restrictions on women’s rights and rural communities lacking resources to help combat food insecurity.

The research team said that the struggles facing Afghans have not been widely reported on since 2022, when thousands of them descended on the airport in Kabul desperately trying to flee their country, some clinging to the outside of aircraft trying to take off.

Study co-author Dr. Felix Cheung, Assistant Professor in psychology at the University of Toronto, added: “Just because the war has ended, it doesn’t mean that every problem has been solved.

“That is the first step of a very long recovery process - a process that requires investments in necessities like healthcare, food and water, and infrastructure- and is informed by evidence."