By Gwyn Wright via SWNS
The world needs to prepare for human extinction because of climate change, according to a shocking new study.
Scientists say global warming could become “catastrophic” for humanity if temperatures rise by even more than they are predicted to, or if heating sets off chains of events that have not yet been predicted.
A team led by Cambridge University academics in the UK say we should prepare for horror scenarios ranging from the loss of 10 percent of the world’s population to the end of human life on Earth.
The researchers say the consequences of more than 3°C of warming, compared with pre-industrial times, have not been explored well enough.
Last year’s IPCC report suggested that if atmospheric CO2 doubles from pre-industrial levels – something the planet is halfway towards – then there is around an 18 percent chance temperatures will rise beyond 4.5°C.
The world is on track for 2.9°C of warming by 2100 if governments’ existing policies, as opposed to pledges they have made, are followed, according to Climate Action Tracker.
Scientists say 1.5°C is a safe level of heating.
The team wants new research to focus on the “four horsemen” of the climate endgame: famine and malnutrition, extreme weather, conflict, and vector-borne diseases.
Rising temperatures raise the risk of crop failures in the world’s most fertile agricultural areas and hotter weather could cause outbreaks of deadly new diseases as habitats for both people and animals shift and shrink.
The authors say catastrophic warming will also make other existing threats worse- including rising inequality, misinformation, democratic breakdown and even new forms of destructive AI weaponry.
They add that technologically advanced superpowers may end up fighting each other in “warm wars” where they fight over dwindling carbon space and even fund expensive experiments to deflect sunlight and reduce global temperatures.
Researchers need to better understand tipping points that could spark disaster- such as melting permafrost that releases methane, the loss of forests that store carbon and even cloud cover, the team argue.
Lead study author Dr. Luke Kemp from the University of Cambridge said: “There are plenty of reasons to believe climate change could become catastrophic, even at modest levels of warming.
“Climate change has played a role in every mass extinction event. It has helped fell empires and shaped history.
“Even the modern world seems adapted to a particular climate niche.
“Paths to disaster are not limited to the direct impacts of high temperatures, such as extreme weather events.
“Knock-on effects such as financial crises, conflict, and new disease outbreaks could trigger other calamities, and impede recovery from potential disasters such as nuclear war.
“We know that temperature rise has a ‘fat tail,' which means a wide range of lower probability but potentially extreme outcomes.
“Facing a future of accelerating climate change while remaining blind to worst-case scenarios is naive risk-management at best and fatally foolish at worst.”
Models show extreme heat, where the mercury reaches more than 29°C on a typical day, could affect two billion people by 2070.
The affected areas are not just some of the world’s most densely populated, they are also some of the most politically fragile.
Two nuclear-armed countries will be this hot within less than 50 years and seven labs containing some of the world’s most dangerous pathogens will operate in sweltering heat.
Earlier research that Dr. Kemp co-authored compared and analyzed IPCC reports. It found they have shifted away from high-end warming to an increasing focus on lower temperature rises.
In earlier studies, he has said extreme temperature rises are “underexplored relative to their likelihood."
He says “we know least about the scenarios that matter most.”
Study co-author Professor Johan Rockström from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany added: “The more we learn about how our planet functions, the greater the reason for concern.
“We increasingly understand that our planet is a more sophisticated and fragile organism.
“We must do the maths of disaster in order to avoid it.”
The findings were published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
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